Nagorno-Karabakh conflict

Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
Part of the post-Soviet conflicts

Military situation in the region before September 20, 2023. For a detailed map, see here
Date20 February 1988 – present
(37 years, 7 months and 5 days)[8][9][10]
Location
Nagorno-Karabakh Line of Contact, Armenia–Azerbaijan border
Status
  • Armenian victory: 1994[20]
  • Political stalemate[21] and cold war: 1994–2020[22][23][24]
  • Arms race[25] and militarization[26][27]
  • Azerbaijani victory: 2020[28]
  • Border crisis: 2021–present[29][30][31][32]
  • Blockade of Artsakh: 2022–2023
  • Azerbaijani victory: 2023[33]
  • Disbandment of the Artsakh Defence Army: 2023[34]
  • Negotiations started between Artsakh and Azerbaijan on 21 September 2023[35]
  • Flight of Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians (2023)
  • Artsakh dissolved on 1 January 2024
  • Continued Armenian-Azerbaijani border crisis
  • Armenia returned four villages captured during the First Nagorno-Karabakh War to Azerbaijan on 24 May 2024.[36]
    • Territorial
    changes    		 Azerbaijan gained control over all of Nagorno-Karabakh[37][38][39]
    Belligerents
     Artsakh (Nagorno-Karabakh; until 2023)[a][b]
     Armenia[c]
    Military support
    Foreign fighters
    Arms suppliers
    Diplomatic support

     Azerbaijan (from 1991)
     Soviet Union (until 1991)[d]

     Turkey (2020) (alleged by Armenia)[5][6][7]
    Foreign fighters
    Arms suppliers
    Diplomatic support
    Supported by:
     Turkey (2020)
    Units involved
    Artsakh Defence Army (until 2023)
    Armed Forces of Armenia    		 Azerbaijani Armed Forces
    Soviet Armed Forces (until 1991)
    Strength
    2018: 65,000 (active servicemen)[40][e]
    1993–1994: 30,000–40,000    		 2019: 66,950 (active servicemen)[43]
    1993–1994: 42,000–56,000[44]
    Casualties and losses
    28,000–38,000 killed (1988–1994)[49]
    3,000 killed (May 1994 – August 2009)[50]
    541–547+ killed (2010–2019)[51]
    7,717 killed (2020)[52]
    44 killed (2021–2022)[53]

    The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict[f] is an ethnic and territorial conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the region of Nagorno-Karabakh. Mostly by ethnic Armenians have lived there until 2023, and seven surrounding districts, is where mostly by Azerbaijanis have lived until they were removed by force during the 1990s. The Nagorno-Karabakh region was entirely claimed by and partially controlled by the Republic of Artsakh, but was recognized internationally as part of Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan slowly took control over Nagorno-Karabakh region and the seven surrounding districts.

    Notes

    1. ↑ Formal dissolution on 1 January 2024
    2. ↑ Nagorno-Karabakh Autonomous Oblast (NKAO) until 1991.
    3. ↑ Armenian Soviet Socialist Republic (Soviet Armenia) until 1990 (renamed Republic of Armenia)/1991 (declared independence).
    4. ↑ "Throughout the Soviet period, Moscow supported the Azerbaijani authorities against Armenian secessionists." "Until the dissolution of the USSR, the Soviet authorities sided, in general, with Azerbaijan. [...] Soviet troops sent to the conflict area [...] on numerous occasions, took the side of the Azerbaijani forces to 'punish' the Armenians for raising the NK issue." "Soviet troops have been in Nagorno-Karabakh for 2 1/2 years [...] The troops support armed Azerbaijani militias who have imposed a blockade of the region..."[1] Soviet troops directly intervened during Operation Ring in April–May 1991 on the Azerbaijani side.[2][3] It was essentially a "combined Soviet-Azerbaijan operation."[4]
    5. ↑ Armenia: 44,800 active servicemen (2019, IISS)[41]
      Artsakh: 18,000–20,000 active servicemen (2008, ARAG)[42]
    6. ↑ Also called the Karabakh conflict,[54] Armenia–Azerbaijan conflict, or Armenian–Azerbaijani conflict. Usually referred to as the Artsakh conflict in Armenia[55] and the Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in Azerbaijan.[56]

    References

    1. ↑ Shogren, Elizabeth (21 September 1990). "Armenians Wage Hunger Strike in Regional Dispute: Soviet Union: Five threaten to starve themselves to death unless Moscow ends military rule in Azerbaijan enclave". Los Angeles Times.
    2. ↑ Cornell, Svante E. (1999). "The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict" (PDF). Report no. 46, Department of East European Studies. Uppsala University. p. 26. Sporadic clashes became frequent by the first months of 1991, with an ever-increasing organization of paramilitary forces on the Armenian side, whereas Azerbaijan still relied on the support of Moscow. [...] In response to this development, a joint Soviet and Azerbaijani military and police operation directed from Moscow was initiated in these areas during the Spring and Summer of 1991.
    3. ↑ Papazian, Taline (2008). "State at War, State in War: The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and State-Making in Armenia, 1991–1995". The Journal of Power Institutions in Post-Soviet Societies (8): 25. doi:10.4000/pipss.1623. ... units of the 4th army stationed in Azerbaijan and Azeri OMONs were used in "Operation Ring", to empty a number of Armenian villages in Nagorno-Karabakh in April 1991.
    4. ↑ Murphy, David E. (1992). "Operation 'Ring': The Black Berets in Azerbaijan". The Journal of Soviet Military Studies. 5 (1): 93. doi:10.1080/13518049208430053. ... Operation 'Ring' as a combined Soviet-Azerbaijan operation to weaken Armenian resistance in the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave.
    5. ↑ "Принуждение к конфликту" [Coercion to conflict]. Kommersant (in Russian). 16 October 2020. Retrieved 21 April 2021.
    6. ↑ Kramer, Andrew E. (29 January 2021). "Armenia and Azerbaijan: What Sparked War and Will Peace Prevail?". The New York Times. Retrieved 4 March 2021. Armenia has said that Turkey was directly involved in the fighting in and around Nagorno-Karabakh, and that a Turkish F-16 fighter shot down an Armenian jet. Turkey denied those accusations.
    7. ↑ Tsvetkova, Maria; Auyezov, Olzhas (9 November 2020). "Analysis: Russia and Turkey keep powder dry in Nagorno-Karabakh conflict". Reuters. Retrieved 4 March 2021. Turkey's support for Azerbaijan has been vital, and Azerbaijan's superior weaponry and battlefield advances have reduced its incentive to reach a lasting peace deal. Ankara denies its troops are involved in fighting but Aliyev has acknowledged some Turkish F-16 fighter jets remained in Azerbaijan after a military drill this summer, and there are reports of Russian and Turkish drones being used by both sides.
    8. ↑ Broers, Laurence (2 January 2024). "The Nagorno-Karabakh Republic: The life and death of an unrecognized state". Eurasianet. Archived from the original on 2 January 2024. Retrieved 2 January 2024.
    9. ↑ Landgraf, Walter; Seferian, Nareg (18 January 2024). "A "Frozen Conflict" Boils Over: Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023 and Future Implications". Foreign Policy Research Institute. Archived from the original on 21 January 2024. Retrieved 21 January 2024.
    10. ↑ Lundgren, Svante (2 October 2023). "Nagorno-Karabakh: it's not over yet". Social Europe. Archived from the original on 4 December 2023. Retrieved 4 December 2023.
    11. ↑ Rudolph, Joseph Russell, ed. (2003). Encyclopedia of Modern Ethnic Conflicts. Greenwood Press. p. 208. ISBN 978-0313313813. When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991 [...] the Karabakh conflict escalated further, from guerrilla warfare to full-scale conventional combat.
    12. ↑ Tharoor, Ishaan (April 5, 2016). "The crisis over Nagorno-Karabakh, explained". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 24 July 2020.
    13. ↑ "The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Visual Explainer". International Crisis Group. Archived from the original on 29 June 2020.
    14. ↑ "Armenia-Azerbaijan arms race undercuts peace prospects". Emerald Expert Briefings. Oxford Analytica. August 11, 2017. doi:10.1108/OXAN-DB223736. As low-intensity fighting continues...
    15. ↑ Anishchuk, Alexei (December 10, 2010). "Armenia says to recognise Karabakh in case of war". Reuters. Archived from the original on 24 August 2020. Low-intensity skirmishes since 1994...
    16. ↑ "The Azerbaijan-Armenia conflict hints at the future of war". The Economist. October 10, 2020. The real war, which began on September 27th,...
    17. ↑ Hauer, Neil (October 9, 2020). "Caucasus war a result of US retreat from the world". Asia Times. The past two weeks have provided one of the starkest examples of the consequences of this: the re-eruption of full-scale war between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh.
    18. ↑ "Armenia-Azerbaijan: Almost 100 killed in overnight clashes". BBC. September 14, 2022.
    19. ↑ Lister, Tim; Mezzofiore, Gianluca; Edwards, Christian; Chernova, Anna; Walsh, Nick Paton (19 September 2023). "Azerbaijan launches operation against Armenian forces in Nagorno-Karabakh". CNN. Retrieved 19 September 2023.
    20. ↑ Broers, Laurence (2005). "The limits of leadership: Elites and societies in the Nagorny Karabakh peace process" (PDF). Accord. London: Conciliation Resources: 8. ISSN 1365-0742. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 February 2017. Retrieved 17 February 2017. Overlaying what is fundamentally a territorial dispute are the consequences of the 1991–94 war: a decisive Armenian military victory resulting in Armenian control of Nagorny Karabakh and the further occupation of seven districts surrounding it.
    21. ↑ Mirovalev, Mansur (April 19, 2016). "Here's why a 'frozen' conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan has gotten hot". Los Angeles Times. The 1994 cease-fire [...] ended in political stalemate.
    22. ↑ The Caucasus and Central Asia: Transitioning to Emerging Markets (PDF). International Monetary Fund. April 2014. p. 72. doi:10.5089/9781484305140.087. ISBN 978-1484305140. Armenia and Azerbaijan have been in a cold war since the cessation of large-scale conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh during 1988–94...
    23. ↑ Broers, Laurence (12 September 2012). "Armenia and Azerbaijan: what can societies do when political judgement errs?". opendemocracy.net. openDemocracy. Archived from the original on 24 August 2020. ...as cold war between Armenia and Azerbaijan deepens.
    24. ↑ Tchilingirian, Hratch (1999). "Nagorno Karabagh: Transition and the elite". Central Asian Survey. 18 (4): 450. doi:10.1080/713656168. As characterized by Karabagh's defence minister, the current post-war situation in the region is 'a cold war between Azerbaijan and Karabagh'.
    25. ↑ Bodner, Matthew (November 21, 2016). "Russia Emerges as Winner in Arms Race Between Armenia and Azerbaijan". The Moscow Times. Archived from the original on 5 August 2020.
    26. ↑ Mutschler, Max; Bales, Marius (February 2020). "Global Militarisation Index 2019" (PDF). Bonn International Center for Conversion. p. 2. ISSN 2521-7844. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2021-08-06. Retrieved 2020-08-14. The unresolved secessionist conflict between Armenia (position 3) and Azerbaijan (position 10) over the Nagorno-Karabakh region continues to keep militarisation in the South Caucasus at a very high level.
    27. ↑ de Waal, Thomas (3 April 2016). "Nagorno-Karabakh's cocktail of conflict explodes again". BBC News. Archived from the original on 28 March 2019. The so-called Line of Contact between the two sides became the most militarised zone in the wider Europe, bristling with tanks and heavy artillery.
    28. ↑ "'Extremely painful': Armenia orders end to fighting with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh". Global News. Retrieved 2020-11-10.
    29. ↑ "As Azerbaijan pushes advantage against Armenia, Russia's role again under scrutiny | Eurasianet". eurasianet.org.
    30. ↑ Joshua Kucera (14 May 2021). "Armenia and Azerbaijan in new border crisis". Eurasianet. Archived from the original on 14 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
    31. ↑ "European Parliament resolution on prisoners of war in the aftermath of the most recent conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan (2021/2693(RSP))" (Press release). European Parliament. 19 May 2021. Archived from the original on 26 May 2021. Retrieved 26 May 2021. On 12 May 2021, troops from Azerbaijan temporarily entered the territory of Armenia, which amounts to a violation of the territorial integrity of Armenia and of international law
    32. ↑ "Macron: Azerbaijani armed forces have crossed into Armenian territory. They must withdraw immediately. I say again to the Armenian people: France stands with you in solidarity and will continue to do so". Archived from the original on 24 May 2021. Retrieved 14 May 2021.
    33. ↑ "Azerbaijan Says Aims For 'Peaceful Reintegration' Of Karabakh Armenians". Barron's. 20 September 2023. Archived from the original on 23 September 2023. Retrieved 22 September 2023. The offensive was seen as a major victory for Azerbaijan, which won a 2020 war with Armenia and has since sought to repopulate Karabakh.
    34. ↑ "Armenian separatists in Karabakh surrender and agree to ceasefire with Azerbaijan". Reuters. 20 September 2023. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 20 September 2023. Under the agreement, confirmed by both sides and effective from 1 pm (0900 GMT) on Wednesday, separatist forces will disband and disarm and talks on the future of the region and the ethnic Armenians who live there will start on Thursday.
    35. ↑ "Karabakh Separatists To Hold Integration Talks With Azerbaijan Thursday". Barron's. 20 September 2023. Archived from the original on 20 September 2023. Retrieved 20 September 2023.
    36. ↑ "Armenia returns four border villages to Azerbaijan as part of deal". Al Jazeera. 24 May 2024. Retrieved 28 May 2024.
    37. ↑ "Azerbaijan claims full control over the Nagorno-Karabakh region after separatists surrender". Le monde. 20 September 2023. Retrieved 22 February 2024.
    38. ↑ "Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russia sign deal to end Nagorno-Karabakh war". www.aljazeera.com. Archived from the original on 9 November 2020. Retrieved 22 February 2022.
    39. ↑ Trenin, Dmitri V. (2011). Post-Imperium: A Eurasian Story. Brookings Institution Press. p. 67. ISBN 978-0870033452. Armenia is de facto united with Nagorno-Karabakh, an unrecognized state, in a single entity.
      • Mulcaire, Jack (9 April 2015). "Face Off: The Coming War between Armenia and Azerbaijan". The National Interest. Archived from the original on 3 January 2017. Retrieved 14 December 2016. The mostly Armenian population of the disputed region now lives under the control of the Nagorno-Karabakh Republic, a micronation that is supported by Armenia and is effectively part of that country.
      • Cornell, Svante (2011). Azerbaijan Since Independence. New York: M.E. Sharpe. p. 135. ISBN 978-0-7656-3004-9. Following the war, the territories that fell under Armenian control, in particular Mountainous Karabakh itself, were slowly integrated into Armenia. Officially, Karabakh and Armenia remain separate political entities, but for most practical matters the two entities are unified."
    40. ↑ Abrahamyan, Eduard (8 January 2018). "Russian Loan Allows Armenia to Upgrade Military Capabilities". CACI Analyst. Central Asia-Caucasus Institute. Archived from the original on 5 August 2020. While often portrayed as separate forces, Armenia's Armed Forces and the "Artsakh Defense Army," totaling up to 65,000 active personnel, are in practice one force with a single Command-and-Control (C2) system.
    41. ↑ International Institute for Strategic Studies (2019). The Military Balance 2019. London: Routledge. p. 184. ISBN 978-1857439885.
    42. ↑ Blandy, C. W. (2008). Azerbaijan: Is War Over Nagornyy Karabakh a Realistic Option? (PDF). Advanced Research and Assessment Group, Defence Academy of the United Kingdom. p. 14. ISBN 978-1905962495. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2016-04-15.
    43. ↑ International Institute for Strategic Studies (15 February 2019). The Military Balance 2019. London: Routledge. p. 185. ISBN 978-1857439885.
    44. ↑ "SIPRI Yearbook 1995". sipri.org. Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. p. 28. Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 August 2020. Table of conflict locations with at least one major armed conflict in 1994
    45. ↑ de Waal 2003, p. 285.
    46. ↑ Winds of Change in Nagorno Karabakh Archived 2011-12-06 at the Wayback Machine. Euronews. 28 November 2009.
    47. ↑ Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh – civilians, viewed 2013-05-03
    48. ↑ "Azerbaijani Soldier Shot Dead by Armenian Forces". Naharnet. Archived from the original on 16 October 2014. Retrieved 22 October 2014.
    49. ↑ See[45][46][47][48]
    50. ↑ "Armenia and Azerbaijan: Preventing War" (PDF). Europe Briefing N°60. International Crisis Group. 8 February 2011. p. 3. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 May 2016. There are no exact casualty figures since 1994, but most observers agree that as many as 3,000 people, mostly soldiers, have died. Crisis Group phone interview, Jasur Sumerinli, military expert, August 2009.
    51. ↑ See here
    52. ↑ See here
    53. ↑ See here
    54. ↑ Rezvani, Babak (2014). Conflict and Peace in Central Eurasia: Towards Explanations and Understandings. Brill. p. 159. ISBN 978-9004276369. The Karabakh conflict is an ethno-territorial conflict....
    55. ↑ "Armenia, Artsakh Security Councils hold joint session in Yerevan". primeminister.am. The Prime Minister of the Republic of Armenia. 23 December 2019. Archived from the original on 5 August 2020. ...the peaceful resolution of the Artsakh conflict.
    56. ↑ "Armenia-Azerbaijan Nagorno-Karabakh conflict". nk.gov.az. Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Azerbaijan. Archived from the original on 17 August 2020.
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